Chiefs News: Patrick Mahomes tops the league — and Andy Reid’s a genius

You probably already know that the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes is the league’s best quarterback in 2024.

According to a new quarterback ranking published on 365 Scores by longtime NFL stat geek Scott Kacsmar, that’s not hard to figure out. His top quarterback tier is labeled “Patrick Mahomes.” This isn’t because he’s the top quarterback in it. It’s because he’s the only one listed there.

Kacsmar believes there are two main reasons Mahomes has no peers. The first? He has no weakness.

Say what you will about Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but defenses knew they’d have an edge if they could hit them frequently, or if they could jam the timing of their receivers and make them hold the ball, building impatience and increasing the odds for mistakes. They knew those quarterbacks could not run and create much out of the pocket.

But with Mahomes, some of the offense’s best YAC plays are the result of him buying time and finding an open receiver for a huge gain. He can run around and make things happen with the best of them. He also has evolved to play the quick game at a high level since the Super Bowl 55 loss to Tampa Bay and the way the league has adapted to two-high safety looks to specifically slow down Mahomes (and other quarterbacks) from beating them over the top.

The second reason is that no quarterback has done a better job of succeeding in the postseason.

Consider this list for the largest team scoring differential since 2019 (regular season only):

· ŸŸBuffalo Bills +684 (no Super Bowls)
· Baltimore Ravens +647 (no Super Bowls)
· San Francisco 49ers +583 (0-2 in Super Bowl vs. Chiefs)
· Kansas City Chiefs +574 (3-1 in Super Bowls)

This is a great start since it shows that the Chiefs have not been the most balanced, dominant team in the regular season since 2019 despite winning three Super Bowls. But by going 6-0 in the playoffs against these teams, they have fully earned their dynasty status by knocking out their main contenders.

That number for Buffalo (+684) is historic as it is the highest point differential in any 5-year span in the salary cap era (since 1994) for a team that made zero Super Bowl appearances out of it. That’s the result of the Chiefs going 3-0 against the Bills in the playoffs with Mahomes dominating their defense, including the 13-second game in 2021.

That number for Baltimore is also the fifth highest since 1994, so that’s another big win in keeping Jackson out of the Super Bowl. Of course, Mahomes has given the 49ers fits in the fourth quarter of two Super Bowls now, making sure he didn’t give a ring to the gaudy stats of Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy in that Kyle Shanahan offense.

Kacsmar then notes that the Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII without Tyreek Hill — and then a year later, advanced to (and won) Super Bowl LVIII despite a long list of disadvantages.

The Chiefs were by no means rebuilding these last few years, and they finally gave Mahomes a great defense in 2023. But these were not their best teams on paper, and they still found a way to get it done both years in an era where no one repeats in the NFL.

What happens when Mahomes actually has a super team that’s elite on offense and defense? That could happen in 2024 if the offensive improvements work, and if the defense remains one of the best in the league. They haven’t had that kind of team yet under Reid and Mahomes.

We’ll see how much longer the Chiefs can extend this run, and how long until the narrative turns to belittling their competition. In the meantime, Mahomes is in his own tier, something you really could not do for any other quarterback in the Super Bowl era.

Takeaway

When we examine Kacsmar’s underlying data more closely, we learn that among teams with the 30 highest five-year point differentials, 10 didn’t win a Super Bowl during those spans. (Kacsmar indexed appearances — not wins).

The New England Patriots had 13 of the top 14 five-year spans — but failed to win a championship in five of them.

In fact, four of those five stretches without a championship are among the top five: 2007-2011 (934 points — ranked first), 2006-2010 (911 — second), 2009-2013 (850 — fourth) and 2008-2012 (845 — fifth).

So I’m not sure I agree with Kacsmar that point differential truly indicates an NFL team’s balance and ability to dominate. Or to put it another way: if it does, it doesn’t necessarily translate to championships.

As I have grown older (and observed more and more NFL seasons), I’m less convinced there’s a single statistic that can measure such a thing. If it could, wouldn’t there be more than one Super Bowl victory in these “most dominant” five-year spans?

During his tenure as Kansas City’s head coach, Andy Reid has taught us that the most important thing is postseason wins, followed by regular-season wins. Running up big scores comes in a distant third.

Some observers believe this is because Reid doesn’t want to embarrass other coaches. I disagree. Like me, Reid is 66. He’s learned that it’s a long season. There’s no upside in pushing your team to get up by another touchdown or two before the final gun. It’s better to conserve your strength for the long run — and show no more cards than are necessary to secure today’s win.

Does Mahomes’ unique ability help Reid do that? You bet it does. Kacsmar is right: there’s no other quarterback in his class. He might even be the biggest part of the team’s success — especially in the postseason.

But it’s still just a part of what Reid has built in Kansas City.