Should Nuggets fans be alarmed by Jamal Murray’s substandard Olympics?

The difference in chatter surrounding Jamal Murray between summer 2023 and summer 2024 is enough to give Nuggets fans whiplash.

Summer 2023: Newly coronated champion. All-time great playoff performer relative to regular-season reputation. Engineer of an NBA Finals 30-point triple-double. Resilient, under-appreciated borderline superstar with a real chance to earn a supermax contract next season. Top-15 player in the league? Is top-12 too dramatic?

Summer 2024: Major underachiever in Denver’s premature playoff demise. Seemingly unable to stay healthy long-term. Deemed unfit for the starting lineup in Canada (be it for injury or performance reasons), where he was supposed to be the second-best player on the second-best team at the Olympics. Lacking explosiveness or separation off the dribble. Lacking a jump shot. Is he out of shape? Should he even get offered a standard max deal?

That’s the cruel nature of the hyper-reactive spin cycle that is NBA discourse. And the season after the season didn’t help Murray.

His first Olympics ended in abrupt disappointment Tuesday, sent home without a medal by the underdog hosts from France. As the knockout stage tipped off, the Canadians practically had a spot on the podium reserved for them. They had gone a perfect 3-0 in the Group of Death, earning their position on the opposite side of the bracket from Team USA. Their first matchup was a French squad that should have finished group play with a 1-2 record.

But Murray’s individual struggles throughout the tournament were ultimately inseparable from the team’s quarterfinal outcome, an 82-73 loss. He shot 3-of-13 for seven points, one assist and three turnovers.

Murray finished the tournament at 6.0 points, 3.8 assists and 2.3 turnovers per game, averaging 21 minutes in four contests. He shot 29% from the field and 14% from 3-point range.

The poor shooting numbers, in particular, form an eerie echo with his subpar NBA playoff stats. Is this recent sample enough to sound the alarm back in Denver, where contract talks are waiting for him?

Evaluating his Paris performance for answers from a Nuggets perspective probably requires some nuance. For instance, it shouldn’t be ignored that Murray’s role with the national team was unlike anything he does in Denver regularly. In lineups with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, he played off the ball more than the Nuggets ever want him to. And when he did get to initiate offense in bench lineups, his pick-and-roll partner was often Dwight Powell. Not exactly Nikola Jokic.

Now, is that defense of Murray concerning in its own right, if the implication is that he’s a far less capable offensive threat when he doesn’t get to play off of Jokic? Certainly, but that was kind of already understood in Denver. Loyal fans don’t need to be lectured again on the Nuggets’ net rating stats during Jokic’s rest minutes. The foundation of this team is Jokic’s ability to elevate his teammates. (See: All of Serbia’s games.) It’s in the eye of the beholder whether that’s a firm or flimsy infrastructure with Murray as the second-best player.

His pile-up of minor injuries also clearly loomed over the Olympics. That, too, can be justifiably interpreted as a valid excuse or a red flag. Canada coach Jordi Fernandez told reporters in Paris that Murray was on a minutes restriction. The eye test was fairly conclusive: Murray had barely any burst when he needed to create space. If he can’t dribble into the shots he’s accustomed to generating independently, it makes sense that his shooting percentages are probably going to drop. Eventually that can snowball into having a mental and mechanical effect on a player’s open looks off the catch.

So if this points to a hypothesis that fully healthy legs are absolutely non-negotiable for a successful season, the question is whether Murray can get past his calf injury once and for all. Maybe rest is all he needs. Maybe the cure involves getting back in the gym and preparing his body to withstand another eight-month grind, as general manager Calvin Booth has implored. Probably, it’s a balance between the two. Whatever the case, Murray has a little less than two months until training camp.

In the meantime, the wait for a Murray extension is likely nearing a conclusion as well. The Olympics surely added a new layer of anxiety to the four-year, $208.5 million max that he’s eligible to sign this summer. (He has one year remaining on his current deal.) The last thing Denver needs is to get trapped in a contract that ages poorly before it even begins. Needless to say, stakes are high for the 2024-25 season, even assuming the deal gets done.

All this consternation could well be hyper-reactive. One bad postseason and a handful of wonky games on a different roster shouldn’t be enough to snuff out Murray’s pedigree and worthiness. After all, in the months between summer 2023 and summer 2024, he delivered arguably the best regular season of his career. His play-making was refined, with an assist-to-turnover ratio exceeding three for the first time. His shooting was superb. His volume scoring was never a supply of empty calories, almost always contributing to wins.

Durability was the only snafu. It can’t be again this year.