Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 7 prediction, odds, pick

Tony Nguyen | Denver Nuggets
May 18, 2024

It’s do-or-die for the contenders and the defending champions as the Minnesota Timberwolves will meet the Denver Nuggets on Sunday for Game 7 of the Western Conference Semifinals at Ball Arena. We’re here to share our NBA odds series, make a Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 7 prediction, and pick while showing you how to watch.

The Timberwolves destroyed the Nuggets 115-70 in Game 6 to force a decisive Game 7. Now, they hope to pull off the shocker of the century and secure a third road win in this series while the Nuggets look to bounce back and seal their ticket to another Western Conference Finals.

Anthony Edwards led the Wolves with 27 points. Additionally, Jaden McDaniels scored 21 points, while Mike Conley had 13 points. Rudy Gobert, Karl Anthony-Towns, and Naz Reid combined for 38 rebounds, showcasing their dominance on the boards.

Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets with 22 points. Unfortunately, Jamal Murray struggled for the third time in this series, with 10 points while shooting 4 for 10. Aaron Gordon had 12 points and eight rebounds.

The Wolves dominated this game from start to finish by holding the Nuggets to 14 points in the first quarter. Then, their bench outscored the Nuggets 36-9, including a 24-0 run in the fourth quarter that ballooned their lead to 49 points.

Here are the NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NBA Playoffs Odds: Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 7 Odds

Minnesota Timberwolves: +4.5 (-108)

Moneyline: +160

Denver Nuggets: -4.5 (-112)

Moneyline: -190

Over: 198 (-110)

Under: 198 (-110)

How to Watch Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 7

Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30 PM PT


Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why The Timberwolves Could Cover The Spread/Win

The Timberwolves dominated the first two games by playing great defense. Then, they stumbled over the next three when the Nuggets got hot. They flipped the script back in Game 6, as their rock-solid defense held Denver to 30.2 percent shooting, including 19.4 percent from the triples. Also, the Wolves dominated the boards 62-43. Minnesota also had nine steals while forcing 12 turnovers. Furthermore, they blocked four shots.

Edwards came through when the Wolves needed him, shooting 8 for 17, including 4 for 9 from the triples, while also generating three steals. Meanwhile, Towns finished with 10 points and 13 rebounds. Gobert had eight points and 14 rebounds. Likewise, Conley returned from injury to score 13 points while shooting 5 for 9, including 3 for 6 from beyond the arc.

Reid had 10 points while shooting 4 for 12 with 11 rebounds. Significantly, McDaniels finally emerged for the first time in this series by shooting 8 for 10. The Wolves even got contributions from Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who had nine points while shooting 3 for 5.

The Wolves will cover the spread if they continue to dominate the boards by boxing out and using physicality. Then, they need to play strong defense on the Nuggets, containing Jokic while forcing Murray into taking bad shots.

Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread/Win

The Nuggets have not faced adversity like this before. Yes, they rallied back after trailing 2-0. But now all the pressure is on them. Therefore, they have to avoid the slow start. Making their shots is critical. Furthermore, they have to do better on the boards.

Jokic went 9 for 19, including 0 for 4 from the triples. He also had nine rebounds and three turnovers. The MVP acknowledged that the Wolves simply beat them and that they need to brush it off. But Murray needs to play much better. Ultimately, he shot poorly and must rediscover his shooting touch, or else the Nuggets will be going home.

Michael Porter Jr. had another quiet game, with eight points while shooting 3 for 9. Sadly, he has done little over the past three games. Gordon remained consistent after shooting 4 for 7 from the field, including 2 for 4 from the triples. Now, the Nuggets might need him to raise his game to help push them into the Western Conference Finals. But it was a regression for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who had just nine points while shooting 2 for 6 after scoring 16 in Game 5.

The Nuggets will cover the spread if they can find ways to shoot more efficiently early to control the tempo. Then, they need to win the tough battles on the boards and make life challenging for Edwards.

Final Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 7 Prediction & Pick

The Wolves are 1-0 in their history in Game 7, with the last one taking place 20 years ago in a battle at the Target Center with the Sacramento Kings. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 4-3 in their history in these games, with the last occurring during the bubble season. The road team is 6-4 over the past 10 Game 7 showdowns. The last time the Nuggets hosted a Game 7 was in 2019, when they lost to the Portland Trail Blazers in the Western Conference Semifinals, with a young Jokic disappointing. This time around, the Nuggets will get it done. Consider the fact that momentum has meant almost nothing in this series. Overall, the Nuggets showcased what they are capable of when they are shooting the ball well. They will bounce back from the disappointing Game 6 loss and cover the spread while sealing their ticket to a second consecutive Western Conference Finals.

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Final Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 7 Prediction & Pick: Denver Nuggets: -4.5 (-112)